{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JH29MSD1H3",
  "slug": "will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-by-june-5",
  "question": "US crude oil reserves, June 5, 2026",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "below",
    "implied_band": [
      275000000,
      400000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 275000000,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 300000000,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 325000000,
        "prob": 0
      },
      {
        "threshold": 350000000,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 375000000,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 400000000,
        "prob": 100
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crude-oil",
    "us-energy",
    "strategic-reserves",
    "commodity-markets",
    "geopolitics",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether U.S. crude oil ending stocks fall below discrete barrel thresholds by June 5, 2026. Each market prices a separate strike level, from 275 million to 400 million barrels, forming an implied distribution across outcomes. All six resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly inventory data. The EIA's Thursday release schedule means the June 5 report date drives resolution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-H2TQBH1662",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H2TQBH1662",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JH29MSD1H3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2db76ff226e5eb35295c6b701ba939f911a8c69cab4b406dfb9ebe40da40844f",
      "question": "Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before June 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before June 5, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.\n\nIf data has not been released for the final week ending on or before June 5 2026, by June 12, 2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve figures.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before June 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before June 5, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.\n\nIf data has not been released for the final week ending on or before June 5 2026, by June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.\n\nNote: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "eia.gov",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 52.146333,
      "volume_total_usd": 12441.471523999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 275000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crude oil",
        "energy",
        "reserves",
        "us crude oil"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GF6K0WMFY8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JH29MSD1H3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd5cfe69869eee679f5b750e0da0518b9d66156e200efa9407ddf25b18fee641f",
      "question": "Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before June 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before June 5, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.\n\nIf data has not been released for the final week ending on or before June 5 2026, by June 12, 2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve figures.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before June 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before June 5, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.\n\nIf data has not been released for the final week ending on or before June 5 2026, by June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.\n\nNote: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "eia.gov",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 28855.947104000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 375000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crude oil",
        "energy",
        "reserves",
        "us crude oil"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8CQ91WD325",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JH29MSD1H3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x718135d518c397ffca20bc77405eca43e439b8958c286149992dafe4f82dfcf7",
      "question": "Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before June 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before June 5, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.\n\nIf data has not been released for the final week ending on or before June 5 2026, by June 12, 2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve figures.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before June 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before June 5, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.\n\nIf data has not been released for the final week ending on or before June 5 2026, by June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.\n\nNote: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "eia.gov",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 38.1,
      "volume_total_usd": 16559.31923399999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 325000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crude oil",
        "energy",
        "reserves",
        "us crude oil"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G57LV8LRD1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JH29MSD1H3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3a2a3d711884decb36c816478e10f00f1be8bd40c31fde3de63dda4a693e9cbd",
      "question": "Will US crude oil reserves fall to 400M by June 5?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before June 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before June 5, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.\n\nIf data has not been released for the final week ending on or before June 5 2026, by June 12, 2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve figures.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before June 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before June 5, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.\n\nIf data has not been released for the final week ending on or before June 5 2026, by June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.\n\nNote: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "eia.gov",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3066.7487470000005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 400000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crude oil",
        "energy",
        "reserves",
        "us crude oil"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QD771ZNDV7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JH29MSD1H3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x351b328835e3ff4d574ae836c9842a7dd72bad929d990098ce0976fb794fab9e",
      "question": "Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before June 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before June 5, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.\n\nIf data has not been released for the final week ending on or before June 5 2026, by June 12, 2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve figures.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before June 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before June 5, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.\n\nIf data has not been released for the final week ending on or before June 5 2026, by June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.\n\nNote: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "eia.gov",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 775.088455,
      "volume_total_usd": 36815.951776000016,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 350000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crude oil",
        "energy",
        "reserves",
        "us crude oil"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-94JLM4WXT0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JH29MSD1H3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3157cfa44e8a866095918d7c383503aeb5faaa42e0d626281e98b1c6991aeab4",
      "question": "Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by June 5?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before June 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before June 5, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.\n\nIf data has not been released for the final week ending on or before June 5 2026, by June 12, 2",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve figures.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before June 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before June 5, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.\n\nIf data has not been released for the final week ending on or before June 5 2026, by June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.\n\nNote: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "eia.gov",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 308.4303,
      "volume_total_usd": 1396.4406370000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 300000000,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crude oil",
        "energy",
        "reserves",
        "us crude oil"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H2TQBH1662",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GF6K0WMFY8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8CQ91WD325",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G57LV8LRD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QD771ZNDV7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
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      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-JH29MSD1H3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}