{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZF44ZSYK3",
  "slug": "will-usdc-hit-50-of-usdt-market-cap-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will USDC reach 50% of USDT's market capitalization by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "crypto-prices",
    "stablecoin-dominance",
    "usdc-vs-usdt",
    "market-cap-comparison",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether USDC market capitalization will reach 50% of USDT market capitalization by December 31. The two Polymarket contracts differ by target year: one resolves against the 2025 year-end threshold, the other against 2026. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Stablecoin market cap data is published by aggregators such as CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap, though neither is a canonical regulatory source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MRHJL6KMY2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.23,
    "implied_probability": 0.23
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JPZSR3B0B7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZF44ZSYK3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf6d34e8899e6925b4af1fe877882db5c3dc1d2d7a1caf096eb8e136eaaee3f3c",
      "question": "Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThis market will resolve based on CoinGecko's \"historical data\" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily \"Market Cap\" data.\n\nThe daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T11:13:01Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThis market will resolve based on CoinGecko's \"historical data\" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily \"Market Cap\" data.\n\nThe daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "coingecko.com",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "coingecko.com",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CoinGecko's \"historical data\" section",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CoinGecko",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 81356.262576,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-C811218A9C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "market-cap",
        "stablecoin",
        "usdc",
        "usdc usdt cap",
        "usdt"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MRHJL6KMY2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QZF44ZSYK3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9397ebfe71585a4beb75b9562083f44d4335fa2858b7bc9a21d2e231ca4b454c",
      "question": "Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThis market will resolve based on CoinGecko's \"historical data\" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily \"Market Cap\" data.\n\nThe daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThis market will resolve based on CoinGecko's \"historical data\" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily \"Market Cap\" data.\n\nThe daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "coingecko.com",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "coingecko.com",
            "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "CoinGecko's \"historical data\" section",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "CoinGecko",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 101671.8598390001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 0.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-1378C68DD4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "market-cap",
        "stablecoin",
        "usdc",
        "usdc usdt cap",
        "usdt"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JPZSR3B0B7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T11:13:01Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-QZF44ZSYK3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}