{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0VV5WWJWV0",
  "slug": "will-venezuela-become-51st-state",
  "question": "Will Venezuela become the 51st state of the United States?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "latin-america",
    "sovereignty",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market prices the probability that Venezuela achieves formal U.S. statehood by December 31, 2026. Resolution requires Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle to confirm annexation of Venezuelan territory by the United States. No comparable Kalshi market exists, so cross-platform structural contrast is unavailable. The resolution bar is annexation, not diplomatic recognition or political negotiation.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RYKNVYFZK4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.023,
    "implied_probability": 0.023,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T08:00:41.128Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RYKNVYFZK4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0VV5WWJWV0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8ded2408388980c032a4e9e3429730747c25a6499e50579abc67a3af5395e174",
      "question": "Will Venezuela become 51st state?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether any portion of Venezuelan territory was formally annexed by the United States and became the 51st state between January 3 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "government of the United States",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.023,
      "implied_probability": 0.023,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T08:00:41.128Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 15.4,
      "volume_total_usd": 393779.03986400005,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "statehood",
        "usa",
        "venezuela"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-0VV5WWJWV0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}