{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CDL1PJHC16",
  "slug": "wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner",
  "question": "Will a Democrat win the Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "2026",
    "wisconsin",
    "democratic-primary",
    "us-governor"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the winner of the Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary, scheduled for August 11, 2026. All contracts are single-candidate binary outcome markets on Polymarket. The markets are mutually exclusive; exactly one candidate wins, so implied probabilities should sum to one. Resolution relies on the Wisconsin Democratic Party's official primary announcement, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MV8GVJF552",
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    "implied_probability": 0.001,
    "as_of": "2026-08-12T20:00:59.502Z"
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x0f1843cae1fa85c263c1f8118554fcff73f8af53d58d0f9fa5283490e69a7d94",
      "question": "Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Mandela Barnes: The Wisconsin Democratic Party's official announcement of the August 11, 2026 Democratic Primary for Governor results, or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting thereof, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "Wisconsin Democratic Party",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Wisconsin Democratic Party",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-12T20:00:59.502Z",
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      "volume_total_usd": 48661.36082399998,
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      "question": "Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
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      "implied_probability": 0.999,
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      "question": "Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Francesca Hong: The Wisconsin Democratic Party's official announcement of the August 11, 2026 Democratic Primary for Governor results, or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting thereof, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "sources": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LCW1P0QV62",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CDL1PJHC16",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe77345ea0ddb380b7a27d58325b85bf9783f69bb31fff33ec1d3d4ce3c1b5586",
      "question": "Will Missy Hughes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Missy Hughes: The Wisconsin Democratic Party's official announcement of the August 11, 2026 Democratic Primary for Governor results, or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting thereof, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "Wisconsin Democratic Party",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Wisconsin Democratic Party",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CDL1PJHC16",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7591555301baf2f0cbfbddce041adcc911e1316dec33f9383a75c977d5191dc2",
      "question": "Will Brett Hulsey win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Brett Hulsey: The Wisconsin Democratic Party's official announcement of the August 11, 2026 Democratic Primary for Governor results, or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting thereof, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
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      "question": "Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Sara Rodriguez: The Wisconsin Democratic Party's official announcement of the August 11, 2026 Democratic Primary for Governor results, or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting thereof, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CDL1PJHC16",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaceb04c32253c46ef1a91713e09faad04c39d49520e20e63053c89fb567dc7dc",
      "question": "Will Zachary Roper win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Zachary Roper: The Wisconsin Democratic Party's official announcement of the August 11, 2026 Democratic Primary for Governor results, or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting thereof, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "sources": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CDL1PJHC16",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x80c4071050deed492007cc230a0e8c913a876c6c54d87f0892c18a9d7517d2b2",
      "question": "Will Kelda Roys win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Kelda Roys: The Wisconsin Democratic Party's official announcement of the August 11, 2026 Democratic Primary for Governor results, or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting thereof, resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.\n\nIf no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WQWVX55GR7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CDL1PJHC16",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "question": "Will Tim Jacobson win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?",
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