{
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    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-284V3KPHS0",
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  "question": "Which countries will experience a recession before 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
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  "tags": [
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    "recession-prediction",
    "macroeconomic-conditions",
    "multi-country",
    "gdp-contraction",
    "2027"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the United Kingdom, China, Japan, or India each enter recession before end-2026. Each contract is a binary outcome resolved independently by Kalshi staff determination. The International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook database is the authoritative source for GDP data. Negative growth across two consecutive quarters in the IMF dataset triggers resolution.",
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  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-284V3KPHS0",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "WRECSS-26-UK",
      "question": "Which countries will have recessions?",
      "description": "United Kingdom",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "United Kingdom: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook database determines whether the named country experiences negative real GDP growth in 2026, with Kalshi staff interpreting IMF data by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "If United Kingdom has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nThe exact dataset for United Kingdom is GDP, Real, Seasonally Adjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "platform_market_id": "WRECSS-26-PRC",
      "question": "Which countries will have recessions?",
      "description": "China",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "China: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook database determines whether the named country experiences negative real GDP growth in 2026, with Kalshi staff interpreting IMF data by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
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        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
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      "question": "Which countries will have recessions?",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-284V3KPHS0",
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      "question": "Which countries will have recessions?",
      "description": "India",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "India: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook database determines whether the named country experiences negative real GDP growth in 2026, with Kalshi staff interpreting IMF data by December 31, 2026.",
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