{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-J1RQF3GW10",
  "slug": "x-banned-in-any-european-country-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will X be banned in any European country by December 31?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "pop-culture",
    "regulatory-ban",
    "europe",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether X (formerly Twitter) is formally banned for use in any specified European country by December 31, 2026. Only one market exists here, structured as a binary outcome on Polymarket. Resolution is handled by Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which evaluates whether a qualifying ban is enacted. No cross-platform comparison is available given single-platform coverage.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KW31YBYGV6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.11,
    "implied_probability": 0.11
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KW31YBYGV6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J1RQF3GW10",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6ccbfc0ac78432d4861b1e840834a97f8c41e89d8d2e472d9365e48fea9e47c7",
      "question": "X banned in any European country by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedon",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether X/Twitter use is banned in any of the specified European countries by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.\n\nA ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the respective government and X/Twitter",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 12955.740404999953,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "europe",
        "regulation",
        "social network",
        "social-media",
        "x"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-J1RQF3GW10",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}