{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NBYBZ8SK64",
  "slug": "zambia-presidential-election-winner-20260604205247322",
  "question": "Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambia presidential election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "zambia",
    "2026",
    "executive-election",
    "africa"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of Zambia's presidential election on August 13, 2026. Polymarket structures the event as discrete per-candidate binary contracts; probabilities across named candidates must sum to at most 100%. The named contenders are incumbent Hakainde Hichilema, Brian Mundubile, and Fred M'membe. Resolution follows official Zambian electoral results, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DDS9M2Q134",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.89,
    "implied_probability": 0.89,
    "as_of": null
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DDS9M2Q134",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NBYBZ8SK64",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x156d09518baa9facc4debb6c388251430b5e8832bdf01e1996ddaedaf4f991f9",
      "question": "Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?",
      "description": "Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Hakainde Hichilema: The named candidate who wins the Zambian presidential election on August 13, 2026, as determined by official results from Zambian government sources or credible reporting consensus by March 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-14T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-14T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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            "name": "Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Electoral Commission of Zambia",
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        "source_quality": null,
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.89,
      "implied_probability": 0.89,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 160.34041299999998,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0QWRB7YFK8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NBYBZ8SK64",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x95a203b70b7f63e5356ada1ae3bcd414a7243ecb8433bef66d6dcbb7102bc807",
      "question": "Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?",
      "description": "Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Brian Mundubile: The named candidate who wins the Zambian presidential election on August 13, 2026, as determined by official results from Zambian government sources or credible reporting consensus by March 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-14T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-14T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Electoral Commission of Zambia",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [],
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      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0N9KLMFRS3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NBYBZ8SK64",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x02e9b16d47215a26872c261f9f4459e9cc9421904b8c01278d01fd40c9e23809",
      "question": "Will Fred M'membe win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?",
      "description": "Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Fred M'membe: The named candidate who wins the Zambian presidential election on August 13, 2026, as determined by official results from Zambian government sources or credible reporting consensus by March 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-14T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-14T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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            "name": "Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.001,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BLK8287B11",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NBYBZ8SK64",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x83b943acc93528ab9786b82b00a442bab829bc67d3234ed8305f6a6278ffba13",
      "question": "Will Person A win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?",
      "description": "Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person A: The named candidate who wins the Zambian presidential election on August 13, 2026, as determined by official results from Zambian government sources or credible reporting consensus by March 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-14T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-14T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Electoral Commission of Zambia",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MBN5JLXSQ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NBYBZ8SK64",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x90f2744012f244f6a5cc31188e2253137082951b67d0e561543ffa412fb51878",
      "question": "Will Person B win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?",
      "description": "Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person B: The named candidate who wins the Zambian presidential election on August 13, 2026, as determined by official results from Zambian government sources or credible reporting consensus by March 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-14T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-14T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Electoral Commission of Zambia",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
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      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D0F365NJX3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NBYBZ8SK64",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb5f794cc471c92cea248840d461bd261de5bbd7f6b3c67ed0de3ca5e0f411fe4",
      "question": "Will Person C win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?",
      "description": "Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person C: The named candidate who wins the Zambian presidential election on August 13, 2026, as determined by official results from Zambian government sources or credible reporting consensus by March 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-14T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-14T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Electoral Commission of Zambia",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "zambia presidential election"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0SX68CRW74",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NBYBZ8SK64",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc2f7cc480a655765e7fb6aa78046a71131775625ce30d6d06449793114c0a67e",
      "question": "Will Person D win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?",
      "description": "Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person D: The named candidate who wins the Zambian presidential election on August 13, 2026, as determined by official results from Zambian government sources or credible reporting consensus by March 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-14T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-14T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Electoral Commission of Zambia",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "zambia presidential election"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L9WM4BTTD9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NBYBZ8SK64",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1bb4cbad4049bd0f0fb5dac459d6285dccbd7197d93dd6cc723a603ad1426333",
      "question": "Will Person E win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?",
      "description": "Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources,",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person E: The named candidate who wins the Zambian presidential election on August 13, 2026, as determined by official results from Zambian government sources or credible reporting consensus by March 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-14T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-14T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
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