{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-96QBN5QTG3",
  "slug": "zcashs-orchard-pool-confirmed-exploited-20260605210804589",
  "question": "Will Zcash's Orchard pool be confirmed as exploited by January 1, 2027?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "zcash",
    "security-exploit",
    "privacy-protocols",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Zcash's Orchard shielded pool suffers a confirmed exploit by January 2027. Resolution requires confirmation from Shielded Labs, the Zcash Foundation, or ZODL, or overwhelming consensus. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle handles settlement. No cross-platform structural contrast exists; only one market is listed.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CNC78JMBS6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.151,
    "implied_probability": 0.151
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CNC78JMBS6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-96QBN5QTG3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x270d3ef640f23a0908f7a3d477faf063baea28c8e2fd11d36f33b4f8c2ab4176",
      "question": "Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited?",
      "description": "This market asks whether Zcash's Orchard pool vulnerability publicized June 4 is confirmed to have been exploited on Zcash mainnet before it was fixed.\n\nThis market resolves \"Yes\" if Shielded Labs, the Zcash Foundation, or the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL) explicitly confirms, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms, that the June 4 Zcash Orchard pool vulnerability was exploited on mainnet before the fix was activated by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nExplicit confirmation of any of the following will qualify: \n- The Orchar",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Shielded Labs, the Zcash Foundation, or the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL) confirmation, or overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, that the June 4 Zcash Orchard pool vulnerability was exploited on mainnet before the fix was activated by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market asks whether Zcash's Orchard pool vulnerability publicized June 4 is confirmed to have been exploited on Zcash mainnet before it was fixed.\n\nThis market resolves \"Yes\" if Shielded Labs, the Zcash Foundation, or the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL) explicitly confirms, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms, that the June 4 Zcash Orchard pool vulnerability was exploited on mainnet before the fix was activated by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nExplicit confirmation of any of the following will qualify: \n- The Orchard pool bug was exploited on Zcash mainnet\n- Any extra, unauthorized, invalid, or unbacked Zcash was created in the Orchard pool through this vulnerability \n- A Zcash network upgrade, migration, audit, turnstile-accounting process (including the proposed new shielded pool with enforced turnstile accounting on exiting Orchard coins), or official investigation reveals excess or invalid Zcash in the Orchard pool that the source attributes to this specific vulnerability. \n\nNew or different exploits targeting the Orchard pool after the original vulnerability was fixed are explicitly disqualified and will not qualify. \n\nThis market will resolve based on official information from Shielded Labs, the Zcash Foundation, or the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL), however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying exploit may also resolve this market. ",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Shielded Labs",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Zcash Foundation",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.151,
      "implied_probability": 0.151,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 24830.52927600001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-852655BC0F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "exploit",
        "orchard",
        "security",
        "zcash",
        "zcash orchard pool"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-96QBN5QTG3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}